Archive for the 'Pre Foreclosures' Category
December 19th, 2009 Categories: Default News, Pre Foreclosures, Shortsales
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December 18th, 2009 Categories: Default News, Mortgage and Loans, National Real Estate Trends, Pre Foreclosures
First American Puts ‘Shadow Inventory’ at 1.7 Million
From DSNewsThere were 1.7 million REOs and homes facing imminent foreclosure that had not yet hit the market at the end of the third quarter, according to data released Thursday by First American CoreLogic.
The company says that at the current sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to get rid of this looming “shadow inventory.” By comparison, First American CoreLogic says shadow inventory a year ago was 1.1 million, representing a 2.4 month backlog.
Shadow inventory is not included in official measures of unsold inventory. According to First American CoreLogic’s
analysis, the visible supply of unsold inventory – accounting for new and existing homes that are currently on the market – was 3.8 million units in at the end of September, down from 4.7 million a year earlier. The visible months’ supply fell to 7.8 months in September 2009, down from 10.1 months a year earlier.
Together, total inventory of unseen and marketed properties comes to 5.5 million units as of September 2009, an 11.1 months’ supply of homes. That figure is down from a total inventory of 5.7 million a year ago, which equates to a 12.7 months backlog.
First American CoreLogic says this indicates that while the visible months’ supply has decreased and is beginning to approach more normal levels, adding in the pending supply reveals there is still quite a bit of inventory that will impact the housing market for the next few years.
Just how big of an impact the shadow inventory makes will depend on whether it hits the market in large fell swoops or makes its way out of the darkness in steady, manageable streams. According to a new report from Radar Logic, the looming distressed property supply will enter the housing market at a controlled rate that can be absorbed by existing demand without drastically reducing prices
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December 4th, 2009 Categories: National Real Estate Trends, Pre Foreclosures, Real Estate News
- More than 1.5 million homes have been lost to foreclosure, according to the Center for Responsible Lending.
- Goldman Sachs is projecting 13 million foreclosures of all types during the next five years.
- One in 10 homeowners are late with mortgage payments, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- Owners owe more than the home is worth in nearly one in five homes, according to First American Core Logic.
More Scary Headllines:
• Banks braced for record debt defaults in the New Year
• Friday’s Jobs Report Will Set December Treasurys Tone
• Treasury to meet with mortgage servicers Monday
• Dubai Debt Woes Deliver Commodities Wake-Up Call
Around the world people are wondering where to park their hard earned cash during the coming year. So, what does the new year have in store for short sale investors? It depends who you ask…
According to the National Association of Realtors, prices are expected to rise 4 percent while home sales will rise by 700,000 to 5.7 million. Foreclosures will top out in the first six months of 2010 and the “fear factor” will fade to create a sunnier outlook for real estate by the end of the year.
On the other hand, less than optimistic projects are expected globally as the shock waves of recent Dubai debt hits the market creating a mini-panic among financials and bankers around the world. Loans to non financial business owners continue to decline and debt deflation combined with credit contraction continues well beyond 2010 according to the popular website “Seeking Alpha”.
Fox News reports commercial real estate is expected to continue to decline until later in 2010 at which point there is hope for optimism as the economy improves. Of course, should unemployment continue to rise that could be stalled for some time however, commercial property values are beginning to steady in many areas of the nation.
REIT’s are expecting a promising year and a record number of trusts are seeing large gains. In fact, they are considered downright affordable in some cases while a rash of new REIT’s have recently hit the market as desperate stockholders seek investments backed by tangible assets.
Interest rates will remain low according to the majority of experts; the general consensus reflects the risk of rising interest rates to negatively impact real estate before a full recovery can get underway. With so much capital sitting on the sidelines, there is little incentive to raise rates prematurely.
Inflation will remain low throughout 2010 and perhaps through 2012 however, tightening credit will make it increasingly difficult to finance properties despite low rates and bargain prices.
Additionally, investors expect the Fed to stop purchasing mortgage bonds creating additional stressors on the market. Finally, new housing starts are expected to rise but continue to lag behind former highs for several years to come.
Courtesy Chris McLaughlin
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November 20th, 2009 Categories: Graphs and Charts, Mortgage and Loans, Pre Foreclosures, Real Estate News, Real Estate Trends
FHA Foreclosures Surge
Did you read that?
FHA foreclosures? Holy cow; that means nearly one in five FHA loans are more than 30 days behind! Most of those FHA borrowers would have bought since the mortgage crash of 2007, since FHA loans were almost extinct before that…
The Mortgage Bankers Association also found recently that 14 percent of all homeowners with any type of mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. It was a record-high figure for the ninth straight quarter.
As they say; even a dead cat will bounce– The media had it all wrong this summer; calling for a bottom and raising hopes of a housing turn-around… There are still many, many more homes coming through the fore closure pipeline…
Loan modification starts are way up, nearly 700,000 homeowners nationally (about 20% of those who qualify) have started the modification process. However, over 75% of those will default again, recent history shows us. And of the 25% that don’t default, how many of them will re-consider when they finally realize that only 10% of loan modifications have any type of principle reduction… it may take 20 years in some areas to get back to ‘ground zero’ or where folks can sell without going short or bringing money to the closing table.
I am really not a pessimistic person, in fact I am too optimistic usually and it has cost me a lot of money and pain by seeing through “rose colored glasses” in the past. I just really see too many signs of more problems to come and think we are a long way from the bottom
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November 19th, 2009 Categories: Default News, Foreclosure Rescue Scams, Loan Modification, Pre Foreclosures, Shortsales
SACRAMENTO /California Newswire/ — Assemblymember Pedro Nava (D-Santa Barbra), Chair of the Assembly Banking & Finance Committee, led the second in a series of informational hearings today to examine California’s foreclosure crisis, the state’s current loan modification programs, and methods by which the state could improve procedures to help struggling California homeowners. Nava was joined by Nevada Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, housing experts, representatives from the banking and mortgage industry, and state and local non-profit housing and consumer organizations.
“This crisis has devastated thousands of California families and communities. It’s time to take a new approach to help families remain in their homes. Today’s hearing provided more evidence that our existing loan modification programs have been ineffective and the number of families benefiting from them is minimal,” said Assemblymember Nava. “I will continue to work with all the stakeholders who testified today to come up with viable and effective solutions, including the establishment of a loan mediation program.”
California continues to have the third highest foreclosure rate in the nation, with one in every 144 homes in some stage of the foreclosure process. While these numbers have decreased from last year, 400,000 were nonetheless foreclosed on in California in 2009. Thus far, federal and state efforts to encourage banks and servicers to modify borrowers’ loans have largely been on a voluntary basis, and those who need help are subsequently falling through the cracks. California needs a new direction and the implementation of a loan mediation program may be one of the solutions.
Assembly Bill 1588, sponsored by Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, was recently introduced by Assemblymember Nava and California Assembly Speaker Karen Bass. The measure will establish a monitored mediation program to help homeowners and lenders reach sustainable loan modifications. Under AB 1588, if attempts at loan modification fail, a reasonable transition plan would be established by the borrower and lender. This type of mediation program has proven successful in numerous other states and cities.
“Families working to turn around the economy need the financial system to work for them to avoid foreclosure,” Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) said. “AB 1588 builds upon successful mortgage workout programs other states have used to bring lenders and homeowners together to find alternatives to foreclosure. By providing the monitoring necessary for this process to succeed in California’s tough housing market, I’m confident this legislation will help more families stay in their homes and keep communities intact.”
Nevada Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley testified today before the committee, stating that she believes Californians can benefit from a program similar to the one she sponsored in Nevada. “No matter where we live, it is critical that we do all we can to help reduce the number of foreclosures and help people stay in their homes. Our program in Nevada has shown initial success in stemming foreclosures. While I understand the obstacles California faces as a non-judicial foreclosure state, I look forward to working with the California Legislature to find ways that a similar program could be implemented, said Speaker Buckley.”
Over the next several weeks, Assemblymember Nava will analyze the testimony given at the hearings regarding loan mediation programs and work with stakeholders to determine how to best move forward to address the current crisis and lessen the detrimental impact on California families.
“I am honored to have Nevada Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley at the State Capitol today to testify on her successful foreclosure mediation program. I look forward to working with her as we make progress with California’s own monitored mortgage workout program,” said Nava.
From Californianewswire.com
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November 18th, 2009 Categories: Default News, Graphs and Charts, National Real Estate Trends, Pre Foreclosures, Real Estate Trends
According to Centralvalleybusinesstimes.com:
Sacramento:
Foreclosure rates in Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville-Woodland metropolitan area increased for the month of September over the same period last year, according to First American CoreLogic.
The rate of foreclosures among outstanding mortgage loans was 3.61 percent for the month of September, an increase of 1.58 percentage points compared to September 2008 when the rate was 2.03 percent.
Foreclosure activity in Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville-Woodland was higher than the national foreclosure rate, which was 2.93 percent for September 2009, representing a 0.68 percentage point difference.
Also in Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville-Woodland, the mortgage delinquency rate has increased. According to First American CoreLogic data for September 2009, 10.29 percent of mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent compared to 6.35 percent for the same period last year, representing an increase of 3.94 percentage points.
Courtesy of Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, November 17, 2009
3Q09 – Delinquencies up, rate slows
According to credit reporting agency TransUnion, delinquent mortgages were up 58% from 3.96% a year ago, and as of Sept. 30, 6.25% of U.S. mortgage loans were 60 or more days past due. Two months delinquency is considered a first step toward foreclosure because it’s hard for homeowners to catch up with payments at that point. The rate of delinquency is slowing, however. The rate was up 7.6% from the second quarter — a much smaller jump than the 11.3% rise in the second quarter and a 14% rise seen in the quarter before that. F.J. Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion’s financial services division, says that while the slower rate is encouraging, the co9ntinual increase shows there are still a lot of problematic mortgages out there.
Mortgage delinquencies remain highest in the four states where the crisis has hit the worst: in Nevada, the rate reached 14.5%, up from 7.7% a year ago; in Florida, the rate was 13.3%, up from 7.8% last year; in Arizona, the rate hit 10.4%, up from 5.5% in 2008; and in California, the rate jumped to 10.2%, from 5.8% last year. Two things have to get better before mortgage delinquency rates start reversing themselves: home values and unemployment. “Until we see improvement in both of those areas, it’s possible that it will take longer for delinquency to improve,” Guarrera said.
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November 16th, 2009 Categories: Mortgage and Loans, Pre Foreclosures, Real Estate News, Sacramento Real Estate
SACRAMENTO, Calif. – (Business Wire) The California State Department of Real Estate (DRE), the state department that issues licenses to real estate professionals and protects consumers in real estate transactions, has intensified its efforts to ensure all consumers receive the protection they deserve.
See the Earth Times Article here
Real Estate Commissioner Jeff Davi said recently “The economic downturn coupled with the unprecedented number of foreclosures has created a rich environment for scammers who have come up with a variety of schemes to take advantage of desperate and financially stressed homeowners, not only must we take aggressive regulatory action against these con artists but we must educate and provide homeowners with the necessary tools to protect themselves against scammers who have charged thousands of dollars in upfront fees and deliver nothing in return.”
Loan modification scams in particular are plaguing of course, California, Nevada and Florida, but also other states as well…
One of the biggest steps that the DRE here in Sacramento has done recently to combat these scams is to re-write the most recent Public Service Announcement in Spanish, the PSA is a comprehensive document warning consumers of loan fraud. Now the DRE has also expanded its Spanish language Website to educate consumers on how to avoid falling victim to a loan scam.
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November 9th, 2009 Categories: Pre Foreclosures, Real Estate News, Real Estate Trends, Sacramento Foreclosures
The shadow inventory that people have been talking about for so long… I have lost buyers (who just got so lethergic and wishy-washy and finally decided waiting was better than buying) because of the fear that somehow a spigot of homes was going to be turned on and flood the market, driving real estate prices even lower here in the Sacramento area…
Now we are finding that maybe it has been a misnomer all along….
According to Sean O’Toole, and Foreclosuretruth; the Foreclosureradar.com blog: There is currently no shadow inventory of bank-owned (REO) properties. What’s more, a surge in REO properties (the Tsunami) is not likely anytime soon.
If this sounds familiar, it’s because I’ve said it before, here and here and other places. However, it still seems to be news (see the recent WSJ article) and despite the fact that the most recent CA Foreclosure Report from ForeclosureRadar.com runs the numbers, some still insist the shadow is there.
First, let’s be clear about what shadow inventory is. These are homes that the bank has already foreclosed on, but which, for no apparent reason, aren’t listed. The implication is that banks are holding REO properties back from the market to restrict supply and prop up prices. This actually seemed like a distinct possibility a year ago when the banks were clearly holding more inventory than they were listing. But that is no longer the case. In the past year, they have resold far more than they’ve taken back, eliminating any possibility that a shadow remains.
Some observers, who earlier this year warned that this shadow inventory would deluge the market with REO listings, have now redefined shadow inventory to include properties that should be foreclosed on. They continue with misguided warnings of a deluge of REO listings any moment now.
Not so. These properties are not lurking in the shadows at all. We know exactly which properties are in trouble and where they are in the process. Using ForeclosureRadar.com you can easily see every potential REO listing, from Notice of Default to Notice of Trustee Sale, for the next six to nine months. In addition, even if banks reversed course and started foreclosing aggressively today, it would be months before we saw those listings as it takes time to evict the homeowner, clean up and list the property.
What’s more, they’re not going anywhere. These properties aren’t grinding through the pipeline to foreclosure and into the shadow inventory. They’re not moving at all because we as a society lack the political will to foreclose. Because the national focus is targeted on keeping homeowners in their homes, the drain is bigger than the spigot – REO properties are selling faster than distressed properties are being foreclosed on.
As a result, the pendulum has swung to the other side. Instead of a glut of properties hitting the market, as so many have warned, we currently don’t have enough inventory for those who want to buy homes, and homeowners are still in trouble because the so-called solutions (foreclosure moratoriums, loan modification, refinancing) don’t fix the real problem, which is negative equity.
No more conspiracy theories. We need to abandon the obsession with shadow inventory, which distracts us from the national discussion we should be having. With the current lack of inventory, its time to force banks to clean up their balance sheets by dealing head-on with the trillions in negative equity that remains, either though loan modifications that reduce principal balances to near current value, short sale, or, if necessary foreclosure. These are the only solutions that deal with the core problem of negative equity. It’s time for “extend and pretend” to end.
About Sean O’Toole
Sean is the founder of ForeclosureRadar.com, the only company that tracks every foreclosure in California with daily updates on all foreclosure auctions. Prior to ForeclosureRadar Sean spent 15 years building and launching software companies before entering the foreclosure business in 2002 where he has successfully bought and sold more than 150 foreclosure properties.
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November 9th, 2009 Categories: Default News, Loan Modification, Pre Foreclosures, Real Estate News, Sacramento Foreclosures, Sacramento Real Estate Trends, Shortsales
Sacramento Trustee Sales Report
Foreclosure Solution Expert Report
I was visiting with a good friend the other day who attends the Sacramento trustee Sales downtown (Yes, they really have a live auction, some days there are three separate sales going on simultaneously at 720 9TH ST; downtown Sacramento) he said he is still seeing more than 7 out of ten sales being postponed. For some reason or another banks and serivcers are pretty much imposing their own foreclosure moratorium, at least here in Sacramento County.
I am a Home Retention Counselor with Titanium solutions and the assignments have been picking up. I used to get one or so a week, but lately have been getting at least five assignments a week, even though I only cover four Zip Codes with Titanium. Titanium Solutions contracts with loss mitigation departments to contact homeowners who for some reason or another have fallen out of touch with their servicer.
In almost every case, the homeowner has at one time either started a loan modification,agreed to look into a loan modification or they have short sale file started and then had somehow fallen out of contact with the right department at the bank. That’s where Titanium comes in– I will go knock on the door, leave a note, look up past phone numbers etc., and normally I am successful at getting the homeowners back in touch with the bank.
Lately though, I have run across situations where the homeowner has been in touch with the bank and working diligently either on a short sale or a loan modification. I talked to a lady in Folsom the other day who had just hung up the phone with her servicer about a half hour before I showed up. Her file was perfect, needed no updating and was in review. Another evening last week in Granite bay, I sat down with homeowners who had a short sale file in and being negotiated and was supposed to have a short sale approval letter that week,
It makes me wonder, why are these servicers doing that?
In my research for an answer, I came across information that suggests that the major banks, who have still got TARP money are being pressured to make some kind of FACE TO FACE contact with their borrowers before they can use foreclosure as a means of recovery.
So by having it documented that a bank representative has come by face to face, the banks now have the foreclosure solution available to them, should the short sale or loan modification fail. (the Titanium Script that I must use with borrowers clearly states that I am a representative of their servicer and a debt collecter and that any information gathered will be used for that purpose).
Could that perhaps have anything to do with the Sacramento Trustee Sale Postponements? Are the two related in any way or just coincidence?
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November 3rd, 2009 Categories: National Real Estate Trends, Pre Foreclosures
A report from RealtyTrac says dramatic increases in foreclosures in Q3 ‘09 came in suburban areas previously believed to be stable, such as Boise, Idaho, up nearly 22% from Q209, and Provo, Utah, which rose nearly 11% in the same period. In several states, foreclosure activities drifted toward smaller towns with previously self-sustaining industries. Chico, California in Sacramento Valley, an agricultural hub, had a 98% increase in foreclosures from Q3 ‘08, according to the report. “You’re moving from Phoenix to Prescott, you’re moving from Las Vegas to Reno,” said Rick Sharga, the vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac.
Sharga sees the foreclosure crisis coming in three waves, and with this new data, the market is showing signs of the second one. “That first wave of foreclosures cratered the economy, which created job losses, which created the second wave. Now, we’re seeing prime rate loans affected by unemployment. And the third wave will be really a repeat of wave one, except this time we’re going to see a switch of Option ARM and Alt-A loans out for the subprime loans. It will probably be as big but somewhat shorter lived.” Sharga said that he expects a peak in foreclosures in 2010, only a marginal improvement in 2011 and a return to normal monthly foreclosure activity sometime in 2012.
Courtesy Chris McLaughlin
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